Monday, November 03, 2008

Election 2008

Since I pick NFL games every week, I may as well make an election pick as well. It looks to me, right now, just hours before election day, that the best McCain can realistically hope for is 260 electoral votes. Some columnists say that if he wins every state where he's within five points, he wins the election. This is only true if you cherry-pick your polls; indeed, if McCain wins every state in which any poll shows him within five, he'll win handily. Heck, if most of the undecideds break towards McCain he wins, albeit with very little room to spare.

But I don't think that's going to happen. I mean, if Obama can't manage to lose Pennsylvania despite essentially promising to bankrupt the coal industry, and with Pennsylvania Rep. John Murtha calling his constituents racists and rednecks, then it really just isn't McCain's year.

You heard it here first:

Obama 302, McCain 236.

Obama wins California, Colorado, Connecticut, DC, Delaware, Hawaii, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin.

McCain wins Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.

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