Thursday, November 08, 2007

NFL 2007 - Week 10

Falcons @ PANTHERS -4

Panthers haven't won at home yet; don't they have to eventually? Four is higher than I'd like (I'd be more comfortable with three), but, the Falcons are bad. And Vinny Testaverde might start, instead of David Carr. That's always a good sign for Carolina. For anybody, really.

Vikings @ PACKERS -5.5

No WAY the Vikings keep this close. Absolutely NO WAY. I can't imagine the Packers will be dumb enough to let Adrian Peterson beat them and inept enough not to be able to exploit the Vikings' horrible pass defense.

Broncos @ CHIEFS -3

Larry Johnson might not play, but the Broncos are bad. The Chiefs aren't going to lose two in a row at Arrowhead in the thick of a playoff race. They're in first place, you know. And, to reiterate: the Broncos are bad.

Bills @ DOLPHINS +3

It's almost impossible to think that the Dolphins will go winless; they're coming off of their bye, and they're playing the Bills, who are good, but not so good you can't imagine them losing to the Dolphins.

Rams @ SAINTS -11.5

The Rams are just so, so bad. Some weeks ago I recommended that, when picking Rams games this season, you pretend you just woke up from a coma that started in August of 1999. By the same token, when picking Saints games for the rest of the year, you should probably pretend that you missed the first month of the 2007 NFL season, when the Saints went 0-4. They're 4-0 since. Sure, that's against mostly bad teams, but, the Rams are a completely bad team.

Browns @ STEELERS -9.5

The Browns are pretty good, but, the Steelers have been absolutely unstoppable at home this year. If my quick math is correct (and, to be honest, there's no reason to believe that it is), the Steelers' smallest margin of victory at Heinz Field this season has been 21 points.

This could be a tight game, because the Browns could turn out be tough enough to give the Steelers a tight game, but I'm really just protecting myself with this pick. If you pick the Browns, and then they get blown away like every other Steelers opponent in Pittsburgh this year, someone could say, "what were you thinking? The Steelers have blown away every opponent in Pittsburgh this year!" And if you pick the Steelers but they don't cover, you've got a good excuse: "How was I supposed to know? The Steelers have blown away every opponent in Pittsburgh this year!"

Hence, the pick.

Jaguars @ TITANS -4

Just when I think the Jaguars are good, they go out and crap the bed in New Orleans. The Titans just keep winning, somehow, even if it would be scientifically impossible to put up fewer fantasy points at quarterback than Vince Young and still manage to win real live games.

Eagles @ REDSKINS -3

The Eagles are really bad, guys. Listen to me about this, if you listen to me about nothing else this week (and, in fact, I'm feeling a pretty bad week coming on, so you probably shouldn't listen to me about anything else this week.

Bengals @ RAVENS -4

The Bengals are in the middle of a lost season, while the Ravens are tied for the seventh-best record in the AFC (and six teams make the playoffs). The Ravens can't possibly afford not to take care of teams like the Bengals if they hope to have any chance.

LIONS @ Cardinals -1

Last week I said I was done getting burned by a lack of faith in the Lions. Maybe they won't beat this spread, but, I'd sleep better Sunday night knowing that I didn't back the Arizona Cardinals over a 6-2 team that's probably headed for the playoffs.

Cowboys @ GIANTS +1.5

Tough one; I think the game will be close, so, if the spread was three points either way I'd just pick a close game and that would be that. Since I can't decide, I'll just take the Giants because they're rested up from their bye week and I don't like the Cowboys. Also, Tony Romo's due for another stinker of a game pretty soon.

I'd expect the Giants to fold again this year, but, none of their key players are currently announcing their retirement effective at the end of the season and going on endlessly about how unimportant football is in their lives, Tiki Barber.

Bears @ RAIDERS +3.5

See? This is why this is such a horrible week. The Bears are bad, but, so are the Raiders, but, are the Raiders this bad? Are they Lose By Four at Home to a 3-5 Team bad?

I practically wanted to flip a coin on this game, but, I will say this: it's nice to see the Curse of the Super Bowl Loser back in full effect (in recent years, the team that loses the Super Bowl goes on to miss the playoffs the following season). I was getting worried there, what with last year's Seahawks coming within an overtime loss of playing in the NFC title game.

COLTS @ Chargers +3.5

Who can possibly guess what the Chargers are going to do? This is why this week stinks. Don't expect me to go 9-5 again, folks.

By the way, Patriots fans have officially gone 'round the bend. A Boston camera guy who's miraculously named neither "Sully" nor "Fitz" (look at him!) claims the Colts pump in artificial crowd noise to mess with opposing teams, and that this was "confirmed" by an RCA Dome "security guard."

NotSully reports that, when the Patriots had the ball, the crowd noise was almost deafening, but when the Colts were on offense to RCA Dome was quiet. Why, it's almost as if the Colts fans in attendance realized that they could create some sort of home field "advantage" by being noisy when the Patriots were attempting to communicate signals on offense, and remaining silent while the Colts were operating with the ball.

Also, they provide "proof" in the form of the CBS feed in which it seems that a "skip" in the audio can be heard. This could only have been the Colts cheating, right? I mean, what are the odds that the audio issue could possibly have had something to do with CBS, huh? Like, a billion to one? When's the last time a network's broadcast of a live sporting event was anything less than completely perfect? It must have been the Colts cheating.

Hey, Boston sports fan: your teams win everything, all the time. Feel free not to be completely miserable. I know that's what you're used to, and if that's not your identity then you might have to admit that you're (gasp!) just like every other freaking sports fan in the country, and you're not special just because you're from Boston. But feel free.

49ERS @ Seahawks -10

I think you could make a living betting against the Seahawks this year. They shouldn't be favored by 10 against anybody, even the 49ers. Well, maybe the 49ers. But still.

The five I feel good (or, if not good, better than the others) about:

Falcons @ PANTHERS -4
Vikings @ PACKERS -5.5
Eagles @ REDSKINS -3
Bengals @ RAVENS -4
LIONS @ Cardinals -1

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