Thursday, October 04, 2007

NFL 2007 - Week 5

Dolphins @ TEXANS -5.5

The Dolphins are probably the worst team in the NFL. Which leads me to wonder: do the surviving members of the 1976 Buccaneers get together and pop open the champagne ever year when the last winless team finally pulls out a victory?

Probably not.

The Texans' had a pretty ugly loss last week in Atlanta, and if they were the old, lousy Texans they'd crap out at home against a bad team. We'll see. I think things have changed, and the Texans are good now.

Jaguars @ CHIEFS +2

The changed my mind about his game a couple of times, but now I can't remember why. It looks like the Chiefs finally found a good wide receiver in Dwayne Bowe, they're riding a nice little two-game winning streak, and I have absolutely no idea what to make of this Jaguars team. If they want to give two points to a hot Chiefs team playing at Arrowhead against an opponent that can't be considered elite under any circumstances, I'll take 'em.

Browns @ PATRIOTS -16.5

I'm not really sure the Patriots will cover this spread. They have to slow down sometime, and the Browns aren't as bad as we assumed they would be. But I'm going to go with the Patriots until they stop blowing teams away. You just have to.

PANTHERS @ Saints -3

Did you know that Carolina is 2-0 on the road this season and 0-2 at home? Did you know that the Saints are 0-3 and haven't even come close? Did you know that Panthers quarterback David Carr looks exactly like Superman? Apparently the oddsmakers don't know any of these things.

(except for the David Carr/Superman thing. I mean, you can't not know that. Not if you've ever actually seen David Carr)

Jets @ GIANTS -3.5

I was really looking forward to the Giants' downward spiral under coach Tom Coughlin, about whom I know very little but have decided I can't stand. Joke's on me, though; the Giants just won two divisional games and they've got the bad, bad Jets this week. Before too long, a Giants fan might be able to find himself saying, "hey, wait a minute... six NFC teams make the playoffs, and we're the sixth best team in the NFC!"

Seahawks @ STEELERS -5.5

The Seahawks are a solid team. I guess this week we'll find out if the Steelers' loss last week in Arizona was that inevitable hiccup that elite teams have once or twice a season, or if we were a little to quick to anoint the Steelers as an elite team in the first place. 5.5 is a pretty high number, too. I'm going to move on before I talk myself in to switching this pick to Seattle.

CARDINALS @ Rams +3.5

This Cardinals team hasn't won on the road yet, but the Rams are just what that particular doctor ordered. I recommend that, when picking Rams games for the rest of the season, you pretend you just woke up from a coma that you fell into in the summer of 1999.

Falcons @ TITANS -8.5

The Titans' only loss came at the hands of the Indianapolis Colts, and it was a close one. So, much like you're pretending you just came out of an 8 1/2-year coma when you're picking Rams games, I think you can pretend that the Titans are undefeated when you're picking them.

LIONS @ Redskins -3.5

Apparently, the Lions are 0-20 all-time at Washington. I'm not sure that means a lot to this particular Detroit team. What means a lot to me is the fact that Detroit scores a lot of points, and the Redskins don't.

BUCCANEERS @ Colts -10

This Buccaneers team is on a roll, having given up 24 points in their last three games combined. The Colts are a little banged up. My Spidey sense is telling me that I wouldn't feel too good about the Colts having to win this thing by at least 11. I think the Buccaneers keep it close.

Chargers @ BRONCOS -1.5

I'm really just picking Mike Shanahan over Norv Turner. Although the Chargers might actually benefit from playing away from home this week, as bad as things have been for them. And didn't I just say, last week, that the Broncos were bad, right before they went out and lost by 18?

Whatever; I hate this game. Shanahan over Turner.

Ravens @ 49ERS +3.5

The 49ers haven't looked particularly great, but the Ravens haven't looked "Favored By 3.5 On the Road" good, either. And San Francisco is due for a bounce-back sort of game after getting humiliated at home last week.

Bears @ PACKERS -3

No way Green Bay loses this game. No way.

COWBOYS @ Bills -10

The Bills won last week. They're going to think they might not be that bad after all. They're going to think they can get something going this week. They're going to be destroyed by the Cowboys, XXVII-style.

The five I feel good (or, if not good, better than the others) about:

Dolphins @ TEXANS -5.5
PANTHERS @ Saints -3
Jets @ GIANTS -3.5
Falcons @ TITANS -8.5
Bears @ PACKERS -3

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