Friday, September 21, 2007

NFL 2007 - Week 3

I got all of my Bill Belichick ranting out of the way on Tuesday, so we won't have to worry about that again. Now it looks like everybody cheats, the Patriots don't do it any more than any other team, and no one really wants to turn over that rock because everyone's afraid of what might be discovered.

So we'll see.


This Ravens team doesn't exactly look like they should ever be favored by 8 over anybody. Tough game to pick, though. You never know with the Cardinals. I think that, for the most part, you'll generally be able to go with AFC Team over NFC Team, but, I can't give away 8 points with this Ravens team. Not right now, anyway.


So, that AFC Team over NFC Team thing I just said? Yeah; not in this game either. I'll take the Pack in Lambeau field, just in case the Chargers aren't actually that good and just in case this season turns into a sort of a last hurrah sort of thing for Brett Favre.


I'm not sure if I can see this Colts team playing two close games in a row. The Texans will be all, "Hey, there was an article about is in Sports Illustrated this week! I know! Us! The Houston Texans! We finally -- oh, crap. There goes Reggie Wayne."


I couldn't take it last week. I picked against the Vikings, and even though the game was a push I became ashamed of myself for even thinking about the possibility of taking the slightest bit of solace in the fact that if the Vikings had lost by more than 3 then at least I'd have picked the game correctly.

So, unless it becomes obvious that they are very, very bad (instead of very, very slightly below average), I won't be picking against the Vikings again this year. I might be picking them this week even without that pledge, though, because the Chiefs look bad. Also, I think these Vikings are too boring to get rattled by another team's home crowd (or to soak up any advantage from their own). I don't think it matters much whether they play at home or on the road.


I don't think I'd ever pick a team to win by 17 points or more under normal circumstances, but the Patriots are going to want to crush everybody this year, in an "it doesn't make any difference if we're cheating or not when we win by this many points" sort of way. They're going to be like a top-tier college football team back when margin of victory was factored in. One of those insecure Southern teams who talk trash about the Pac-10, and then think that running up the score on Troy State proves something.


If I don't think either of these teams is any good, why am I picking the road team? I don't know. I just don't know. There are some teams I always think are good no matter what, and I guess the Dolphins are one of those teams. The Dolphins and the Rams. At least I'm learning about the Rams (see below).


The oddsmakers have saved me some work, because I can just cut-and-paste what I wrote about Philadelphia last week:
Seems like too many points for an Eagles team that has shown no indication it's any good.

Very recent conventional wisdom holds that the three elite teams in the AFC are now the Patriots, Colts and Steelers; not the Patriots, Colts and Chargers.


Stick a fork in the Rams.


I figured it'll be tied this week when Jason Elam makes his last-second, game-winning field goal, so at least I can get myself a push in this game.


I'm not sure I'd count on the Browns to score another 51 points this week. And the Raiders have to win at least one game this season. Everybody does.


What a horrible game to pick. I wouldn't touch this one of I wasn't picking every game. Seattle's a tough place to play, the Seahawks are relatively healthy and coming off a stupid loss, and the Bengals defense... well, they gave up 51 points last week. To the Browns.


The Falcons defense, on the other hand, has looked solid, and my research has indicated that Atlanta's offense is made up largely of professional football players, so I figure they'll have to get it together at some point. This is their home opener, so maybe that will help.


I've never liked Giants coach Tom Coughlin, so this season promises to be an enjoyable one, Giants-wise.


The Cowboys might well be the best team in the NFC. This game should help sort that out.


This Saints team is starting to look like the old New Orleans Saints we all know and love.

The five I feel good (or, if not good, better than the others) about:


Suicide pick: Steelers

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